Half Year 2023 - Performance overview

Never be afraid to look in the mirror and learn from your mistakes

Disclaimer: This blogpost is for informational purposes only and should not be considered personal financial advice. The author is not a licensed financial professional and will not be held liable for any decisions made based on the information provided. We simply want to take you along the journey we are making ourselves. Investing comes with inherent risks and you should perform your own research before making any investment decisions.”

Almost 6 months have passed since we started this blogpost. The primary idea was to have a space where to write down longer stock analyses. A complementary platform to our Twitter channel

Lets look back on all ideas (in chronological order) and where they are today

• FEB 23 - Vital Energy → Cheap oil stock, but no fan of the low cashflow generation. No short entered at the time, although the stock is down -22% in the meantime (also due to general oil price decline)

• FEB 23 - Porsche SE Group → Holding company above VW with lots of value / trading below NAV. Never really pulled the trigger as doubts regarding VW brands growth still remain. Will they be able to keep selling in China? Or will local brands take over their marketshare… Still on the back of my mind. Stock didn’t move since.

• FEB 23 - Beyond Meat → Lots of negatives. Played it short by selling 21 APR 2023 calls at $18 strike for $2.50 each. Got to keep all the premium, nice 100% gain !

• MAR 23 - Manchester United → Yes, the football club ! Special situation as sales process is going on. Stock price is very volatile depending on the latest gossips. Placed an order to buy shares at $19. Executed in April. Still holding currently with a +31% gain at $25. Have a (partial) sell order ready for $28.

• MAR 23 - FlatexDegiro → Stock market broker for retail traders in EU. Stock was beaten down because of regulatory issues which it straightened by now. Limit buy order at €6 per share, but never triggered. Sadly, because up +12.5% since then.

• MAR 23 - RCM Technologies → Industrial small cap active in different branches. I saw no negatives and don’t know why I didn’t pull the trigger … All elements lined up (OK valuation, clean BS, mgmt ownership, growing company) but I wanted an even better price. Stock is up +75% since… Learning point, when you find no negatives and valuation is OK, take a first position

• MAR 23 - Direct Line → British Car & Home insurer. Hit by inflation and rising rates, but was oversold. Took a small trading position at £140 and sold one month later for +20% gain at £168 (almost top ticked …). Stock is down again since and almost ready for another round (subscride to Substack or Twitter to get notification)

• APR 23 - Atenor → Belgian Office Developer. Cannot find buyers for its completed offices at the desired price. Short and since then kept on falling with a recent equity raise. Stock down -40% since, and almost ready to close the short.

• APR 23 - Energy SpA → Italian Energy Storage System producer. Small cap with nice financial track record + ties to large Chinese supplier of batteries. Scaling up and aiming to sell towards corporates in addition to retail/homes. First position taken only last week at €3 recently as buy-limit was outstanding.

• APR 23 - Alphamin → Solid Tin miner with good financials, management and growth record & plan (rare in the mining sector, lots of investor capital is lost on exciting stories here). But in the end its a play on the Tin price. Never triggered the buy limit.

• MAY 23 - Altisource → Default servicer with lots of potential if the credit default cycle finally picks up. But in a very stretched financial position here. Economic signals are still a bit mixed, so preferred to wait out another quarter. My bad as company is up +38% since analysis.

• JUN 23 - Carvana → If this company needs introduction, congrats to you as you are prone to the meme-stock mania. One-off beneficial sale of loans will help Q2 result, but this is a typical ‘pump’ and I’m waiting for the announcement of a capital raise any day now. Sold 21 JUL calls at $40 strike for $2.50 each. Few weeks left to go…

• JUN 23 - Cofinimmo → Just published the article few days ago. Very confident in this stock (very nice dividend yield, even if they scale it down a little). Expecting some more volatility but would like to make this a key participation (if home care operators stabilize).